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spatial-modeling

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A GNN over four Arctic regions, connected by real geography, extending Causal-Feature-Selection-Atric-Sea-Ice with real ERA5 data. Two training bugs were fixed and over smoothing was ruled out. Against naive it looked strong; against trend plus persistence it does not win, since the apparent skill was mostly a shared trend, not real spatial signal.

  • Updated Aug 6, 2026
  • Jupyter Notebook

A larger GNN test than the Arctic project, 30 world cities connected by real distance. The graph actively hurt the model at first, beaten by both persistence and the same model with no graph at all. A skip connection fixing signal dilution then beat every baseline, including persistence, confirming the graph was helpful once fixed properly.

  • Updated Aug 6, 2026
  • Jupyter Notebook

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